W44 F3Xa

Adoption of Climate-Resilient Wheat Varieties and Flexible Harvesting Methods

Brazilian wheat farmers should adopt more climate-resilient varieties, particularly those bred to withstand heavy rainfall and fluctuating temperatures. These varieties can help mitigate the impact of adverse weather conditions, such as the floods and rains currently damaging crops in Rio Grande do Sul. Moreover, incorporating flexible harvesting techniques, like early harvesting or staggered planting, can help farmers adjust to unpredictable weather patterns. Investing in improved drying and storage technologies will ensure that crops are recovered to suitable weather conditions, increasing overall crop yield despite challenges. Farmers can also consider diversifying wheat production with other crops to reduce the financial risks tied to wheat alone.

Actionable Recommendations

Persistent Drought Expected in the US Wheat Regions for Winter 2024/25

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts drought will likely persist or worsen in key US wheat-growing regions this winter. A developing La Niña pattern will shape US weather from Dec-24 to Feb-25. NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for the northern US, especially in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes areas. However, drier-than-average conditions will likely affect the southern US, covering much of the critical winter wheat-producing regions.

Weekly Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Develop Resilient Wheat Production Systems Using Technology

Russian wheat farmers should adopt advanced agricultural technologies, such as precision farming and intelligent irrigation systems, to tackle the challenges posed by extreme weather events like droughts. Farmers can optimize water usage, soil management, and pest control using data-driven insights, leading to more resilient wheat production. Furthermore, integrating weather prediction tools into farming operations can help farmers better plan for adverse conditions, allowing them to decide when to plant, irrigate, or harvest. These innovations can help increase the efficiency of wheat production, reduce losses from unpredictable weather, and maintain competitiveness in global markets despite climatic challenges.

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Russia's Wheat Exports Set New Record in Oct-24

Russia's wheat export forecast for Oct-24 has been revised upward to 5.9 mmt, setting a historical record for monthly exports, surpassing Oct-23's 5.12 mmt. For the Jul-24 to Oct-24 period, total wheat exports from Russia are projected to reach 20.8 mmt, exceeding last year's 20.2 million tonnes. Moreover, Nov-24 wheat exports are also expected to exceed last year's level, with a forecast range of 4.6 to 4.8 mmt, compared to 3.49 mmt in Nov-23. Russia's grain exports for the last agricultural season totaled 72 mmt, including 54.1 mmt of wheat.

EU Wheat Exports Dropped 31% YoY in the First Half of the 2024/25 Season

European Union (EU) wheat exports dropped by 31% year-on-year (YoY) in the first half of the 2024/25 season, with much of the EU’s wheat imports now coming from Ukraine. Wheat prices in Paris have fallen due to sluggish EU exports, prominent United States (US) harvests, and vigorous export activity from Russia. The European Commission (EC) reported that EU common wheat exports reached 7.0 million metric tons (mmt) from July 1 to October 20, down from 10.2 mmt over the same period last year.

Invest in Wheat Quality and Branding for New Markets

The EU should focus on enhancing the quality and branding of its wheat to differentiate itself in global markets. Since wheat exports have dropped significantly, a focused effort to position EU wheat as a high-quality, sustainable product could help open new trade channels. Creating specialized wheat varieties suited for specific consumer needs, such as high-protein or organic wheat, could attract premium buyers, especially in niche markets like organic food or health-focused industries. EU exporters should also participate in global trade shows, build stronger relationships with international buyers, and promote their wheat's sustainability credentials to boost demand and justify a price premium.

Sources: Timescolonist, UkrAgroConsult, Agri, Opresenterural, Kvedomosti, Ahdb

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Heavy Rains Impacted Wheat Harvest in Southern Brazil

Heavy rains in southern Brazil have been damaging wheat crops, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul. Consequently, many wheat farmers surveyed by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA) have paused spot market negotiations, waiting for further harvest progress. Those continuing to sell have been more flexible with offer prices, acknowledging potential declines in grain quality due to adverse weather. Wheat prices in São Paulo have substantially risen, driven by the state's low productivity. According to National Supply Company (CONAB) data, 98% of the wheat area in São Paulo has already been harvested.